Blog #q4 2024

·  Industrial space demand has softened, raising the vacancy rate from 1.8% to 5.5% over eight quarters. 

·  Net absorption in 2024 hit its lowest level in over a decade. 

·  Rental rates continued to decline throughout 2024. 

·  Available sublet space reached a record high. 

·  Tenant activity remains weak, indicating slower business growth plans. 

·  Market uncertainty is tied to the U.S. elections and potential tariff impacts. ·

  Leasing activity fell 5.3% for the year, with Q4 down 28% from 2023. 

·  Orange County’s net absorption was negative 1.19 million SF in Q4 and negative 5.27 million SF for the year.

Southbay Submarket Key Highlights (Download Report for Midcounties, Central & Inland Empire Submarkets)

• Vacancy/Availability
  • Vacancy rate in Q4 2024 increased to 5.2%, up 80 basis points from Q3 and 130 basis points year-over-year.
  • High-end properties linger on the market for an average of 7.2 months, giving tenants more leverage in negotiations.
  • Total vacant available space expanded to 10.4 million square feet by the end of Q4.
• Rental Rates
  • Average asking rents fell 1.2% ($0.02) quarter-over-quarter and 8.9% ($0.16) year-over-year.
  • South Bay rents increased 34.1% between Q4 2020 and Q4 2024, reaching $1.63 NNN per square foot.
  • Only 76 lease transactions were completed in Q4, well below the historical quarterly average of 105 transactions.
• Construction
  • 1.37 million square feet under construction across 10 buildings in South Bay.
  • Two new buildings totaling 263,060 square feet were added in Q4 2024.
  • None of the 10 ongoing projects, including six exceeding 100,000 square feet, have been pre-leased, posing risks of higher vacancy rates.
• Leasing Activity/Absorption
  • Net absorption in Q4 2024 was -1.47 million square feet, continuing a negative trend since Q4 2022 (except for Q3 2023 and Q3 2024).
  • New leasing activity totaled 1.19 million square feet, well below the long-term quarterly average of 2.59 million square feet.
  • Average time to lease a building in South Bay increased to 6.4 months.
• South Bay Submarket: Top Leases in Q4 2024
  • 2027 Harpers Way, Torrance: Virco Manufacturing, 10/01/24, 559,000 SF.
  • 24760 S. Main St., Carson: DCW, Inc., 10/22/24, 231,008 SF.
  • 250 W. Manville St., Compton: Kair Harbor Express, 10/01/24, 206,483 SF.
  • 2230 E. Carson St., Carson: JAM-N Logistics, 10/01/24, 198,292 SF.
  • 18111 S. Santa Fe Ave., Rancho Dominguez: Air Products Manufacturing LLC, 10/01/24, 136,980 SF.
• Sales Activity/Investment Trends
  • Q4 2024 sales volume reached $375 million across 14 transactions, up from $163 million in Q4 2023.
  • Average price per square foot rose 36% quarter-over-quarter and 15.6% year-over-year, reaching $386.48.
  • Capitalization rates increased 160 basis points to 6.0%.
  • The Federal Reserve cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025.
  • Investor activity remains cautious amid policy uncertainties.
• South Bay Submarket: Top Sales in Q4 2024
  • 2501 Rosecrans Ave., Los Angeles: Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc., 12/06/24, 300,201 SF.
  • 18500 Crenshaw Blvd., Torrance: Gpjco Properties LLC, 12/05/24, 180,269 SF.
  • 2550 El Presidio St., Carson: Caroline Tseng, 10/31/24, 130,055 SF.
  • 15914 S. Avalon Blvd., Compton: Access Services, 12/02/24, 75,431 SF.
  • 14455 S. Broadway, Gardena: Aleah Miller, 11/27/24, 58,723 SF.