Blog #q3 2023

The standout feature of the 3rd Quarter of 2023 was the unexpectedly rapid expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), outpacing earlier projections and reflecting robust economic performance. This accelerated growth trajectory defied initial forecasts, signaling a buoyant and thriving economy. 

Furthermore, the labor market exhibited remarkable resilience during this period, showcasing sustained employment figures and reinforcing the economy's underlying strength. This continuity in job creation and stability contributed significantly to the overall positive economic landscape. 

In a notable decision, the Federal Reserve opted against raising interest rates, a move indicative of their confidence in the current economic conditions. This decision aimed to sustain the momentum of growth and support ongoing economic recovery without implementing tighter monetary policies. 

Despite persistent world conflicts and geopolitical tensions, several facets of the global economy exhibited signs of improvement. This unexpected resilience and progress in various economic indicators underscored the capacity of certain regions and sectors to navigate challenges and thrive despite prevailing uncertainties. 

Collectively, these factors marked a dynamic and promising quarter for the economy, reflecting both resilience and unexpected vigor in the face of various domestic and international challenges.

The demand for industrial space from tenants in the third quarter showed a continuous decline, with the Orange County Industrial Market experiencing a negative net absorption of 848,736 square feet. This negative absorption is the most significant since the first quarter of 2019. Furthermore, it marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction, resulting in a total negative absorption of 1.8 million square feet for the year. Countywide, the vacancy rate increased by 40 basis points, reaching 3%, the highest it has been in the past 10 quarters. 

Despite these challenging trends, the average rent for industrial spaces has seen an 11% year-over-year increase. However, Lee & Associates' agents have observed a growing trend of landlords offering concessions on new lease agreements and lease renewals. This shift in landlord behavior suggests that they are becoming more attuned to the weakening demand in the market. 

While it may appear that leasing activity is on the decline, the industrial real estate market remains active. There is a notable presence of prospective buyer-users who remain undeterred by the rising interest rates. This indicates that even with the challenges posed by increased vacancies and negative net absorption, there is still considerable interest and activity in the market from those looking to purchase and utilize industrial spaces, especially in Orange County.

The industrial sector in the San Gabriel Valley continues to exhibit resilience and robustness, even in the face of a minor uptick in the vacancy rate, which now stands at 3.3%. This small increase in vacant industrial spaces has not had a significant adverse impact on the market. Rental prices have experienced only a slight dip since the previous quarter, currently averaging at an annual rate of $18.96 per square foot on a triple-net lease basis. 

Despite these minor fluctuations, construction activity in the San Gabriel Valley remains steady and thriving. A substantial 5.3 million square feet of new industrial developments are currently underway, illustrating the enduring demand for industrial properties in the region. 

However, it is essential to note that a moratorium in Pomona, California, affecting warehouses, trucking facilities, and other industrial-related uses, is poised to expire by the close of 2023. This pending expiration of the moratorium introduces an element of potential opportunity into the local industrial landscape. Both tenants and developers should keep a watchful eye on market dynamics and remain flexible in their strategies, ready to pivot to seize emerging opportunities in this ever-evolving industrial market in the San Gabriel Valley. 

In conclusion, the San Gabriel Valley's industrial sector is in a state of transition, with various factors in play, from the rise in vacancy rates to the imminent expiration of the Pomona moratorium. Adapting to these changes and staying well-informed about market shifts will be crucial for those involved in the industrial real estate market in this dynamic and resilient region.

A prevalent and unifying trend has emerged in the industrial markets of Greater Los Angeles & Long Beach, Orange County, and the Inland Empire during the third quarter of 2023: an uptick in vacancy rates. This development has undoubtedly captured the attention of real estate observers, raising questions about the resilience of these markets amidst evolving economic conditions.

While it's true that asking lease rates and sale prices have moderated from their previous peaks, they continue to hover at historically elevated levels. This is particularly noteworthy in the realm of leasing, where the prevailing rates are higher than what has been observed in the past. The apparent contrast between increased vacancies and persistent high asking rates creates an intriguing narrative within these markets.

The question that naturally arises is whether this shift in vacancy rates is a direct consequence of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes or if it's a temporary slowdown in the market's momentum. The answer to this query remains somewhat elusive, and much like the economic outlook itself, it is subject to ongoing observation and analysis.

One plausible hypothesis is that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes has yet to fully materialize. These hikes may have prompted businesses and investors to reevaluate their strategies, potentially leading to a pause in leasing and purchasing activities. The full ramifications of such monetary policy decisions often take time to ripple through the real estate sector.

On the other hand, it is equally plausible that the observed increase in vacancy rates is a transient phenomenon. Industrial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors, including supply and demand dynamics, economic cycles, and regional conditions. Short-term fluctuations are not uncommon, and they may not necessarily indicate a fundamental shift in the health of these markets.

As we move forward, close monitoring and analysis of these markets will be essential to provide a more definitive answer. Factors such as employment trends, trade activity, and consumer behavior will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of these industrial markets. Whether the current situation is a harbinger of sustained change or a brief pause in the continued growth of these markets will be revealed in the coming quarters, offering valuable insights into the ever-evolving real estate landscape.