Blog #market report

• Demand for industrial space weakened countywide in Q3, with an increase in sublet space.
• Vacancy rates are the highest since 2013 but still 200 basis points below the national average.
• The decline in net absorption is the largest year-to-date drop in 15 years.
• Average rents fell for the seventh consecutive quarter.
• Countywide negative net absorption in Q3 totaled 1.3 million SF, bringing the annual total to 4.1 million SF, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
• The average triple-net rental rate dropped to $1.59 per SF, down from the $1.71 peak at the end of 2023.
• Q3's 5% vacancy rate is an increase from 2% in Q1 2023.

In Q3 2024, the South Bay submarket saw a continued increase in vacant space, with the vacancy rate rising to 4.4%, up 20 basis points from Q2 and 50 basis points year-over-year. Tenants are becoming more selective, taking advantage of longer decision-making periods. Despite a 7.8% year-over-year decline in average asking rents, rents remained somewhat resilient due to concessions from landlords.

Leasing activity included 1.37 million square feet of new deals, though it was below the 10-year average. Net absorption was positive for the first time in a year, at +669,007 square feet. Construction continues with 1.5 million square feet in progress, which could impact vacancy rates if demand doesn't catch up.

Sales activity increased from Q2 but remained significantly lower than in 2023. Sales volume reached $71.9 million, and average prices per square foot dropped 22.5% year-over-year to $258.92.

During the fourth quarter of 2023, the San Gabriel Valley Industrial Submarket of Los Angeles experienced a continuation of the trend where available space increased once again, marking a significant factor in the local industrial real estate landscape. This rise in available space suggests potential shifts in market dynamics, such as increased supply or adjustments in tenant demand, influencing the overall vacancy rates in the submarket. 

The submarket faced a minor setback in terms of average rents, which decreased by $0.07 to $1.56 NNN (Triple Net Lease). This decrease may be attributed to the delicate balance between supply and demand, tenant negotiations, and broader economic factors that impact the pricing dynamics of industrial properties in the San Gabriel Valley. 

Within the Pomona Industrial Market, warehouse buildings in the fourth quarter of 2023 had an average sale price of $308.76 per square foot (PSF). This figure provides valuable insights into the local market's pricing dynamics, reflecting the perceived value of industrial properties in Pomona during that specific quarter. 

In the neighboring City of Industry, the average sale price per square foot for warehouse buildings stood higher at $351.68. This higher price point suggests that the City of Industry maintained a premium position within the San Gabriel Valley, potentially due to factors such as strategic location, specialized facilities, or a higher level of demand in that specific submarket. 

Looking at the San Gabriel Valley Industrial Market as a whole, the average sale price settled at $304.52 PSF during Q4 of 2023. This comprehensive figure encompasses the performance of various submarkets within the San Gabriel Valley, highlighting the overall pricing trend for industrial properties across the region. 

In summary, the fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed an increase in available space in the San Gabriel Valley Industrial Submarket, coupled with a slight decrease in average rents. The variations in average sale prices across specific markets, such as Pomona and the City of Industry, add complexity to the overall real estate landscape. Stakeholders and investors may find value in analyzing these trends to make informed decisions in response to the evolving dynamics of the San Gabriel Valley's industrial real estate market.

The industrial real estate landscape in Orange County has experienced a notable shift in the fourth quarter of 2023, marked by a noticeable impact on rental dynamics. The moderation in tenant demand has contributed to a increase in vacancy rates during this period thereby leading to a deceleration in rent growth. This shift in market dynamics has implications for both property owners and tenants, shaping the overall economic landscape of the region. 

One of the noteworthy industrial real estate transactions during Q4 of 2023 was the acquisition of 7050 Village Drive in Buena Park, CA, by Buchanan Street Partners. This move underscores the strategic investment decisions being made in response to the evolving market conditions. Additionally, Home & Body Co.'s leasing of 5800 Skylab Road in Huntington Beach, CA, reflects ongoing activity with industrial real estate warehouse buildings, albeit with a focus on leasing arrangements. 

Analyzing specific areas with Orange County warehouse and industrial properties, the sales prices have exhibited distinct trends. Huntington Beach, for instance, has seen an average price of $380.00 per square foot (PSF) over the past year. This figure provides valuable insights into the relative strength of the market in this particular locale. In comparison, Garden Grove has experienced a slightly lower average sale price at $320.00 PSF, indicating variations in the pricing dynamics across different parts of the county. 

Furthermore, lease rates with Orange County industrial properties averaged $1.58 per square foot during the fourth quarter of 2023. This figure serves as a benchmark for property owners and tenants alike, offering a glimpse into the prevailing economic conditions shaping leasing negotiations. The asking lease rates provide crucial information for businesses seeking commercial spaces, influencing decisions on location and affordability. 

In summary, the industrial real estate landscape in the Orange County market is adapting to changing demand patterns, with notable transactions and pricing trends providing valuable insights for industry stakeholders. As the market navigates through these shifts, strategic decision-making and a nuanced understanding of local dynamics will continue to be key elements for success in the region's real estate sector.

1. Vacancy Rate Increase in South Bay Industrial Market: 

• The South Bay Industrial market has experienced a year-over-year increase of 250 basis points in vacancy rates, reaching 3.9%.
• This uptick suggests a change in the demand and supply dynamics within the industrial sector of the South Bay.

 2. Sublease Transactions in Industrial Leasing: 

• Out of the 87 industrial lease transactions in the 4th quarter, 17.2% were sublease transactions.
• The prevalence of subleases in the industrial sector underscores a strategic approach by tenants, potentially driven by the need to optimize existing space or adjust to evolving operational requirements.

 3. Tenant Responses to Scarcity in Industrial Spaces: 

• Faced with continued scarcity, many industrial tenants in the South Bay have chosen to renew existing leases or implement efficiency measures within their current space.
• This strategic response has contributed to a cooling effect on the market, leading to a 3.2% year-over-year decrease in industrial lease rates.

 4. Larger Decline in Industrial Lease Rates for Direct Spaces: 

• The industrial lease rates for direct spaces have seen a larger quarter-over-quarter decline of 11.25%.
• This pronounced decrease indicates heightened competition and negotiation dynamics in the industrial leasing market, likely influenced by increased vacancy rates and tenant strategies.

 5. Landlord Concessions in Industrial Leasing: 

• The decline in industrial lease rates and the competitive landscape have prompted landlords to make some concessions to facilitate deals.
• Concessions may include adjustments in terms, incentives, or other favorable arrangements to attract and retain industrial tenants.

 6. Industrial Sales Transactions: 

• Industrial sales transactions have experienced a decline in the average number, dropping from a quarterly average of 20 to 13.
• Additionally, both the average and median industrial asking sales prices have decreased quarter over quarter, reflecting a softening in the industrial sales market.

 7. South Bay Industrial Market Positioning: 

• Despite the observed trends, the South Bay Industrial market remains 4.4% below the 20-year national average industrial vacancy rate.
• The areas surrounding the port continue to be more optimal for most Industrial operations, indicating a sustained high demand in the foreseeable future.

 8. Additional Reports for Midcounties, Central (Los Angeles), and Inland Empire Industrial Markets: 

• The report includes insights into the other industrial markets of Midcounties, Central (Los Angeles), and Inland Empire, providing a comprehensive view of the broader industrial landscape in the region.

In summary, the South Bay Industrial market is navigating through changes with increased vacancy rates, strategic tenant responses, and shifts in leasing and sales dynamics. Despite these trends, the market remains below the national average industrial vacancy rate, with certain areas, particularly around the port, expected to continue experiencing high demand. The inclusion of reports for other industrial markets enhances the overall understanding of the industrial real estate landscape in the region. If you have specific questions or would like to explore particular aspects further, feel free to let me know!

The industrial sector in the San Gabriel Valley continues to exhibit resilience and robustness, even in the face of a minor uptick in the vacancy rate, which now stands at 3.3%. This small increase in vacant industrial spaces has not had a significant adverse impact on the market. Rental prices have experienced only a slight dip since the previous quarter, currently averaging at an annual rate of $18.96 per square foot on a triple-net lease basis. 

Despite these minor fluctuations, construction activity in the San Gabriel Valley remains steady and thriving. A substantial 5.3 million square feet of new industrial developments are currently underway, illustrating the enduring demand for industrial properties in the region. 

However, it is essential to note that a moratorium in Pomona, California, affecting warehouses, trucking facilities, and other industrial-related uses, is poised to expire by the close of 2023. This pending expiration of the moratorium introduces an element of potential opportunity into the local industrial landscape. Both tenants and developers should keep a watchful eye on market dynamics and remain flexible in their strategies, ready to pivot to seize emerging opportunities in this ever-evolving industrial market in the San Gabriel Valley. 

In conclusion, the San Gabriel Valley's industrial sector is in a state of transition, with various factors in play, from the rise in vacancy rates to the imminent expiration of the Pomona moratorium. Adapting to these changes and staying well-informed about market shifts will be crucial for those involved in the industrial real estate market in this dynamic and resilient region.

The San Gabriel Valley Industrial Market remains robust.

Some easing of demand in the 2nd quarter of 2023, see below for more.

Every key metric typically used to measure the health of the economy is performing well right now. GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, and it is estimated to grow by 2.3% in Q2 by the Atlanta Fed . In terms of employment, over the last year the U.S. added 3.8 million jobs and now has an unemployment rate of 3.6%. With regard to inflation, both headline and core inflation are
trending downward. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-over-year in June and 0.2% for the month, below consensus estimates of 3.1% and 0.3%. This was the lowest rate of inflation since March 2021. And core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 4.8% year-over-year and 0.2% for the month. The annual core inflation level was
the lowest since October 2021, and its monthly gain was the smallest gain since August 2021.

Most economists, forecasters, and business leaders are anticipating that the Fed will continue to raise rates throughout the year until it reaches its target inflation rate. For this reason, most forecasters still believe a mild and shallow recession is likely within the next twelve months. However, a significant minority are anticipating that the US economy will avoid a recession altogether. For example, in its latest forecast, the National Association of Realtors has the economy growing slowly every quarter throughout 2023 and projects the economy to grow by 1.1% for the whole year. 

Regardless of one’s stance on this issue, it is indisputable that the industrial market is in a favorable position to weather most headwinds the economy might face. Total retail sales grew by 1.6% in May 2023 compared to the same period a year ago , and as a percentage of total sales, e-commerce retail sales (one of the key drivers of the industrial sector) now stand at 15.1% – 3.9 percentage points higher than where it stood at its peak prior to the pandemic in Q4 of 2019. With this said, available space continues to increase and there has been a growing sentiment regarding a shift in negotiating power from Landlords to Tenants

For the first time in a long time a change in the market materialized in the 1^st quarter of 2023 in the Los Angeles – Long Beach Industrial Real Estate Market.  It appears that lease rates may have hit their ceiling for now.  The level of leasing activity in Q1 of 2023 dipped to levels not seen since 2006.  Despite the drop in activity demand for Industrial space remains at top levels and a struggle between historically high rates and the need for space is likely to play out over the next 18 or so months.

The industrial real estate market in Orange County, CA is continuing to experience high demand with low vacancy rates. The region’s industrial market is primarily focused on manufacturing and distribution, with industries such as aerospace, defense, and technology driving the demand for space. 

In Q1 of 2023, the average asking rent for industrial space in Orange County was around $1.64 per square foot, which is slightly higher than the Southern California average. Despite the higher rental rates, the market remains attractive, with limited availability and a high demand for industrial properties. 

Overall, the industrial real estate market in Orange County, CA is currently strong, and is expected to continue to attract demand from a range of industries due to its strategic location, desirability and proximity to major transportation routes.

The Los Angeles industrial real estate market is one of the most active and sought after in the United States. It is a diverse market, ranging from smaller facilities to large, modern distribution centers. The demand for industrial space in Los Angeles has remained strong due to the city's strategic location, growing population, and thriving economy. The Los Angeles industrial real estate market has also benefited from the rise of e-commerce, as online shopping has led to an increased demand for warehouse and distribution facilities. While the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on many industries, the industrial sector has remained resilient, with strong leasing activity and a stable vacancy rate. Overall, the Los Angeles industrial real estate market presents many opportunities for investors, developers, and tenants alike. 

The Los Angeles industrial real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2022 was strong, with robust demand and limited supply leading to higher rental rates and lower vacancies. The e-commerce sector continued to drive demand for warehouse and distribution space. Overall, the market was characterized by a favorable balance between supply and demand, with positive outlook for the future.