Blog #commercial real estate

GDP Growth: 

• U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 2.8% in Q3, slightly below Q2's 3%.
• Consumer spending rose 3.7%, the fastest since Q1 2023, but residential investment dropped 5.1%, its second consecutive decline.
• Inflation hit the Fed's 2% target, with unemployment steady near 4%.

 Employment: 

• 254,000 jobs were added in September, the largest gain in six months.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while wages increased 4% year-over-year.
• Upward revisions to prior months' job numbers highlight ongoing labor market resilience.

 Monetary Policy: 

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5% in September, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%.
• Strong job data makes further significant rate cuts unlikely.
• Fed Chair Powell emphasized balancing inflation control with stable employment.

 Global Economy: 

• IMF projects global growth of 3.2% for 2024-2025, with risks from regional conflicts and trade disruptions.
• Emerging Asia sees growth upgrades due to semiconductor demand, while Europe faces downgrades.
• Global inflation is expected to decline from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
• Long-term growth remains constrained by aging populations and weak productivity.

• The Inland Empire West submarket experienced a stall in net activity during Q3.
• Subleases and renewals dominated top lease transactions.
• Vacancy rates increased slightly, while availability trended downward.
• Pricing remained steady, but tenant concessions (e.g., free rent, tenant improvements) have risen and are now widely expected.
• Industrial construction slowed significantly, with the development pipeline at 43% of its year-over-year level.
• Institutional interest in the market continues to grow despite reduced activity.

• Easing tenant demand has led to a significant increase in available industrial space in Orange County.
• Total available space has almost doubled, reaching 18 million square feet over the last 18 months.
• Both direct and sublet space have contributed to this increase, with sublet space nearly doubling to 3.3 million square feet.
• New construction has also played a role, adding 2.6 million square feet of space last year.
• As a result, the countywide vacancy rate has risen from a record low of 1.8% in Q4 2022 to 4.1% by the end of Q1.
• Negative net absorption was observed in three out of four major submarkets in the county during Q1.
• Rent growth has slowed to 2.5% year over year, offering some relief to Orange County tenants.
• The current triple-net county average rent is $1.66 per square foot, reflecting a 126% increase over the past decade.

Slowing Inflation and a Growing Economy is a positive sign for Q2-2023.

Commercial building tilt-up walls are a type of construction technique commonly used in the construction of large, commercial and industrial buildings. In this technique, the walls of the building are constructed on site, but instead of being built up from the ground, they are built flat on the ground and then tilted up into position.

The walls are typically made of reinforced concrete and are cast in large panels that are then lifted into place using cranes. This process can be completed relatively quickly and efficiently, and is often preferred for large commercial and industrial buildings because it allows for the construction of large, open spaces without the need for traditional load-bearing walls.

One of the primary benefits of tilt-up construction is speed. Because the walls are prefabricated offsite and then simply tilted into place, the overall construction process can be completed much faster than traditional construction methods. Additionally, because the walls are made of reinforced concrete, they are very strong and durable, making them an ideal choice for buildings that need to withstand harsh weather conditions or other extreme environments.

Another benefit of tilt-up construction is cost. Because the walls are constructed offsite and then lifted into place, there is less need for expensive equipment and materials on site, which can help to reduce overall construction costs.

Finally, tilt-up construction can also be an aesthetically pleasing option for commercial and industrial buildings. The panels can be designed to include a variety of architectural details, textures, and colors, giving the building a unique and visually appealing look.

Overall, tilt-up construction is a popular choice for commercial and industrial buildings because it is efficient, cost-effective, and durable.

The San Gabriel Valley industrial market in the fourth quarter of 2022 continued to perform well with low vacancy rates and rising rents. In the 1st quarter of 2023, it is expected to continue this trend with growing demand for industrial space from various industries, such as e-commerce, logistics, and manufacturing. The San Gabriel Valley's strategic location, close proximity to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and excellent transportation infrastructure make it an attractive location for businesses. 

Overall, the San Gabriel Valley industrial market in the 4th quarter of 2022 remained strong, with ongoing demand and limited supply driving up rents and pushing down vacancy rates.

Over 1.8M SF of space was leased by Industrial Users in the 3rd Quarter of 2021, a record for a 3-month period in the last 17 years.  Vacancy rates prolonged their downward trend as demand continues to outstrip supply.  E-Commerce continued to lead the charge as many Industrial segments persist in experiencing pandemic related growth.  Click below for full report.

"With interest rates at extremely lows levels and fears of rising inflation heating up, investors have flocked to real estate investment trusts (REITs) as an investment vehicle." Click below for full report.

The Orange County Industrial Market continued its blistering pace with sale prices and lease rates continuing to climb.  One of the larger deals included a sale price point above $400 Per Square Foot (PSF), Click Download File below for more.

As you may already know, the 1031 exchange has recently come under attack.  The proposed elimination of like-kind exchanges could have drastic implications for commercial real estate.  Take action now by clicking below and expressing your concern to your local member of Congress and two Senators from your state.  Click here to compose and send your message.